The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are meeting today and tomorrow to discuss the next move for monetary policy. Here’s what the country’s big four banks think will be the outcome:
ANZ economists are predicting the RBA to hold rates steady. The bank has maintained its prediction of the first cut to come in February 2025.
The Commonwealth Bank foresees a hold this month, with the first cut expected in December. Commbank had previously believed the first cut would be as soon as November, but this decision was revised last week after the latest data showed a surprisingly strong job market, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2% in August and another 40,000 people finding work (see image).
NAB economists are forecasting a hold, with the first cut to come in May 2025.
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis believes the RBA will hold rates in September, with the first cut to come in February next year.
