At its April 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate steady at 4.10%. But the conversation has now shifted to when we’ll see the next rate cut—and by how much.
According to updated forecasts, a reduction in the coming months is becoming increasingly likely. NAB has gone as far as suggesting the RBA is in a position to deliver a “super-sized” 50 basis point cut. Meanwhile, Westpac, CommBank, and ANZ all anticipate a gradual easing throughout 2025, with rates potentially falling as low as 2.60% by mid-2026.
Market pricing backs this up. On 9 April, the ASX cash rate futures showed a 100% probability of a rate cut to 3.60%, with similarly strong expectations in the days before and after.
For borrowers, this could translate into meaningful relief. A 25 basis point reduction could save the average Australian borrower more than $1,250 per year, with homeowners in NSW and the ACT seeing even greater savings.
In the meantime, borrowers concerned about rising repayments may benefit from reviewing their current loan structure. Exploring options such as negotiating with their lender or considering a refinance could help reduce financial pressure ahead of any official rate cuts.
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