Azura Financial Market Update – April 2024

Cash Rate Expectations

  • ANZ: 1 cut in Q4 2024
  • CBA: 3 cuts late 2024
  • NAB: 1 cut November 2024
  • Westpac: 2 cuts late 2024

RBA Statement Summary – Key takeaways from their statement below:

  • Cash rate steady at 4.35%
  • Inflation is falling but still remains high, driven by goods inflation falling whiles services inflation remains elevated
  • Labour market remains stronger than expected
  • Household spending is low, reflecting the impact of higher rates
  • Economic outlook remains uncertain
  • RBA expects inflation to reach 2-3% only by 2025
  • The priority remains returning inflation to target range = they will keep rates higher for longer and risk a recession


  • February Inflation (released 27 March) printed at 3.4% for the second month in a row
  • The price of goods is falling but the price of services remain elevated.
  • It’s likely inflation has peaked but the rate at which inflation falls remains uncertain


  • Latest unemployment data released in March unexpectedly dropped to 3.7% vs market expectation of 4%
  • This reflects a strong and resilient labour market and reduces the likelihood of a rate cut earlier than expected
  • More jobs = stronger economy = stickier inflation = higher rates for longer

Property Market Update

  • National home values index rose 0.6% in March, the 14th month of positive growth
  • Adelaide and Perth posted the strongest results with 1.4% and 1.9%
  • Volume of home sales through the Q1 24 are 9.5% higher relative to Q1 23
  • The national rental index was up 2.8% in the March quarter, the fastest quarterly pace of rental growth since the three months ending May 2022 (2.9%)

Capital City Clearance Rates

  • Capital city clearance rates hold above 70% over Easter – over 65% is usually indicative of a rising market
  • Sydney and Adelaide with the highest at 78%

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